Is Covid-19 just a dress rehearsal?

 

New way of life - getting tested for Covid-19 (not my photo)

 

There is no doubt that Covid-19 has caused a disaster in just about every country in the world. As of 10 August 2020, the world has passed 20 million people with confirmed infections. There have been over 734 000 people who have died. Each of these people who have died have left loved ones behind and families and lives have been disrupted. As bad as this is, the cost in human lives is by no means the only effect of this pandemic. 

Social fallout - not USA military but civilians!

 

The economies around the world have taken a terrible blow and will take many years (if not a generation) to recover. The economic impact of this virus could still far out-weight the health impact of the disease with many millions of people out of work and the world economy in ruins. Many small businesses have just not been able to cope with the prolonged lockdown and social distancing rules (some of which are pretty illogical in South Africa). 

 

The ban on the use of alcohol in South Africa is having a devastating effect on the lives of many people. It is estimated that some 500 000 people are directly employed in the alcohol industry. South Africa has some of the finest wines in the world, and many of these farms are not going to be able to survive the lockdown. The ban on smoking is another very interesting one. The many millions of Rands lost through taxes cannot be recovered. Yet - the ban goes on and one can only ask if there is not a very high level of corruption and hidden agendas here. 

Looting and unemployment (not my photo)

 

But back to the topic - is this just a dress rehearsal for the really big pandemic waiting in the wings, probably the wings of birds! Scientists have been predicting a major pandemic since the mid 1990’s. Most of these scientists have been predicting that the next major pandemic would be caused by Influenza virus. Just because we have now had a coronavirus (this has now very much become a household name) pandemic, does not mean that the likelihood of an influenza pandemic is any less likely! This Covid-19 pandemic could just be a dress rehearsal! Getting us all ready for social distancing, isolation and good biosecurity for when the really big one hits! 

Next pandemic could be waiting in the wings (Not my photo)

 

The current Avian Influenza virus (Bird flu H5 N1) which is currently circulating has a mortality rate of around 67%. That is 67 out of every 100 people who get sick, die! The mortality rate for Covid-19 is only around 3,7% globally! Just between you and me, I think that the reported numbers of people dying is South Africa are way less than the actual numbers! The current bird flu virus has been able to get from birds to man, but it has, as yet not developed human to human transmission.

Coronavirus - mutations occur on the spike protein

 

If this virus mutates into a form that can spread from human to human, we could be in for a really serious pandemic. So how does it mutate? The influenza virus, just like coronvirus are RNA viruses. Than means that the genetic material of the virus is RNA. In all other living forms (except for some viruses), the genetic material is stored as DNA. What is this? RNA is an unstable molecule and mutations can occur quite easily. So the influenza virus is ideally suited to mutate. You may well ask, what must a virus do to be able to mutate? Simply replicate inside a cell. Now when you have hundreds of millions of birds farmed in close proximity to each other, you have the perfect opportunity for the virus to mutate. It is not a question of "If" the virus mutates into a deadly human form, it is a question of "When"? As bad as the current Covid-19 situation is, it is nowhere near as serious as the 1918 influenza virus outbreak where some 50 million to 100 million people died. 

Still not as bad as the 1918 Spanish flu - Just love the cat with the mask.

 

Just because the current Covid-19 virus is causing a mortality rate of around 4%, it does not mean that it cannot get much worse, before it gets better. There is already clear scientific evidence that the virus is mutating. With each mutation, you stand the risk of getting a more dangerous virus. With each mutation there is also a possibility that the virus could change to such a state that the newly developed vaccine, which has been developed in breakneck speed,will no longer be effective. Scary times indeed! We are still a long way to go before we are through this!